NYSE: NCLH - Norwegian Cruise Line

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — キーレート
Excess Key Rate — 必要なキーレートの超過
EPS = 0.3888
CAGR EPS = -38.16%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.3888 * (1 + -38.16%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 2.78

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 適正価格
Terminal Value — 予測後の期間のコスト
Company Value — 予測期間中のコスト
Count shares - 株式数
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.69
Ebitda Yield = -0.0069
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 債務返済コスト
Debt - 義務
Weight Debt - 負債に対する資本の重み
Weight Cost Debt - 資本総額に対する負債の重み
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.7275
Debt = 14.08
Market Cap = 7.1
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.1 / (7.1 + 14.08) = 0.3352
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.3352 = 0.6648
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 割引率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — リスクフリーの収益率
β (beta) — 市場に関連した株式 (資産) のリスクの尺度を決定し、市場の収益性の変化に対する株式の収益性の変化の感応度を示します。
Risk Premium — リスクプレミアム - 株式投資のリスクに対するプレミアム
Country Premium - カントリーリスク
k(f) = 2.82
β = 3.14
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 3.14 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.2149
WACC = (0.7275 / 14.08) * (100% - 0.3352) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.2149 + 0.3352 = 4.14
Terminal Value = Discount (1.69 * (1 + -0.0069) / (4.14 - -0.0069)) = 28.41
Company Value = ∑ (1.69 / (1 + 4.14) ^ 5) = 7.62
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (28.41 + 7.62) / 427400000 = 84.29

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 適正価格
Terminal Value — 予測後の期間のコスト
Company Value — 予測期間中のコスト
Count shares - 株式数
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.3432
FCF Yield = -1.86
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 債務返済コスト
Debt - 義務
Weight Debt - 負債に対する資本の重み
Weight Cost Debt - 資本総額に対する負債の重み
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.7275
Debt = 14.08
Market Cap = 7.1
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.1 / (7.1 + 14.08) = 0.3352
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.3352 = 0.6648
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 割引率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — リスクフリーの収益率
β (beta) — 市場に関連した株式 (資産) のリスクの尺度を決定し、市場の収益性の変化に対する株式の収益性の変化の感応度を示します。
Risk Premium — リスクプレミアム - 株式投資のリスクに対するプレミアム
Country Premium - カントリーリスク
k(f) = 2.82
β = 3.14
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 3.14 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.2149
WACC = (0.7275 / 14.08) * (100% - 0.3352) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.2149 + 0.3352 = 4.14
Terminal Value = Discount (0.3432 * (1 + -1.86) / (4.14 - -1.86)) = -0.1264
Company Value = ∑ (0.3432 / (1 + 4.14) ^ 5) = 0.4625
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.1264 + 0.4625) / 427400000 = 0.7863